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Free Excel tool · endowment finance

Will the draw outlast the endowment?

A Monte Carlo stress test for your spending policy. Run a thousand twenty-year scenarios and see the odds your draw quietly erodes the corpus — before the board votes on next year's rate.

Your email unlocks the download here. No spam, no list-sharing.

Here's your tool.

Thanks — it's ready below. Drop it into your next finance-committee packet and run your own assumptions.

Download the tool (.xlsx)
~30%
of sample scenarios end below the original gift's real value

Illustrative simulation · 6.2% real return, 11% volatility, 4.5% draw, 20 years

What it shows your board

One projected line hides the risk. A distribution reveals it.

01

Probability underwater

The share of scenarios where real corpus falls below the original gift — the number behind your ASU 2016-14 disclosures.

02

Probability of depletion

How often the fund runs dry inside your horizon, given the return and volatility assumptions you set.

03

Percentile fan chart

The full range of outcomes, 10th to 90th percentile, year by year — the picture a finance committee actually understands.

Built for the finance office, not a data team.

No add-ins, no scripts to enable, no learning curve. Open it, type in your endowment's value and your spending rate, and read the odds. Everything recalculates the moment you change an assumption.

Most boards approve a spending rate without ever seeing the odds.

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